{"id":1104,"date":"2013-07-04T16:14:23","date_gmt":"2013-07-04T16:14:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.asimmetrie.org\/?p=1104"},"modified":"2024-02-15T14:16:02","modified_gmt":"2024-02-15T13:16:02","slug":"ripresa-non-credo-il-mercato-immobiliare-ci-tirera-a-fondo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/asimmetrie.org\/en\/interventi\/op-ed\/ripresa-non-credo-il-mercato-immobiliare-ci-tirera-a-fondo\/","title":{"rendered":"Ripresa? Non credo, il mercato immobiliare ci tirer\u00e0 a fondo"},"content":{"rendered":"

A fronte delle dichiarazioni schizofreniche del governo (\u201cluce in fondo al tunnel\u201d, \u201cpunto di non ritorno\u201d), converr\u00e0 guardare i dati. Le ultime proiezioni dell\u2019OCSE (29 maggio 2013) confermano quelle emesse a aprile dal Fmi. Il Pil italiano diminuir\u00e0 almeno fino alla fine del 2013: 10 trimestri consecutivi di calo. Poi, forse, una debole ripresa nel 2014. Forse, perch\u00e9 la riduzione del reddito pro capite ai livelli del 1997, e l\u2019aumento del carico fiscale sulla casa, stanno mettendo in serie difficolt\u00e0 le famiglie.<\/p>\n

Molte non riescono pi\u00f9 a rimborsare i mutui, o sono costrette a vendere seconde o prime case. Di conseguenza l\u2019indice dei prezzi delle abitazioni (fonte Bce), stazionario dallo scoppio della crisi, \u00e8 in caduta libera dall\u2019autunno 2011 (sei trimestri). Un fenomeno mai registrato da quando i dati sono disponibili (1990), che avr\u00e0 ovvie conseguenze sull\u2019attivo delle banche italiane, dove molti crediti sono garantiti da immobili. A valle della crisi immobiliare, seguir\u00e0 quindi, inevitabile, una crisi bancaria, che metter\u00e0 gli italiani di fronte alla necessit\u00e0 di ricapitalizzare gli istituti di credito.<\/p>\n

A quel punto si dovr\u00e0 scegliere: o affidarsi alle esperte e caritatevoli mani della trojka (che nel frattempo sta facendo ammenda per gli sfracelli commessi in Grecia), o riappropriarsi della sovranit\u00e0 monetaria. Scelta che, come tutte le scelte difficili, sar\u00e0 tanto pi\u00f9 onerosa quanto pi\u00f9 verr\u00e0 rimandata nel tempo.<\/p>\n

Alberto Bagnai
\nIl Fatto Quotidiano, 4 luglio 2013<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A fronte delle dichiarazioni schizofreniche del governo (\u201cluce in fondo al tunnel\u201d, \u201cpunto di non ritorno\u201d), converr\u00e0 guardare i dati. Le ultime proiezioni dell\u2019OCSE (29 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29],"tags":[112,116,140,191,209],"topic":[5,9],"expert":[15],"class_list":["post-1104","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-op-ed","tag-euro","tag-eurozona","tag-grecia","tag-mercato-immobiliare","tag-ocse","topic-grecia","topic-eurozona","expert-alberto-bagnai"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nRipresa? 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