{"id":4058,"date":"2017-04-23T07:55:02","date_gmt":"2017-04-23T07:55:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.asimmetrie.org\/?p=4058"},"modified":"2022-07-22T16:14:41","modified_gmt":"2022-07-22T15:14:41","slug":"wp-201702-withdrawal-of-italy-from-the-eurozone-stochastic-simulations-of-a-structural-macroeconometric-model","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/asimmetrie.org\/en\/pubblicazioni\/wp-201702-withdrawal-of-italy-from-the-eurozone-stochastic-simulations-of-a-structural-macroeconometric-model\/","title":{"rendered":"WP 2017\/02: Withdrawal of Italy from the Eurozone: Stochastic Simulations of a Structural Macroeconometric Model"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>This paper assesses the impact on the Italian economy of withdrawal of Italy from the Eurozone, by means of the stochastic simulation of a macroeconometric model. The model considers the contractionary effects of devaluation, the evolution of sovereign debt spread and the development of bilateral economic relations between Italy and its major trade partners. The simulation results are consistent with the findings of recent applied research: the Italian economy would follow the V-shaped pattern observed in most currency crises. After an initial period of stress, it would recover and resume growth at a reasonable pace.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This paper assesses the impact on the Italian economy of withdrawal of Italy from the Eurozone, by means of the stochastic simulation of a macroeconometric [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":8157,"template":"","tags":[],"topic":[9,363],"publications_category":[14],"expert":[15,320,321],"class_list":["post-4058","publication","type-publication","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","topic-eurozona","topic-uscita-dall-euro","publications_category-working-papers","expert-alberto-bagnai","expert-brigitte-granville","expert-christian-a-mongeau-ospina"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>WP 2017\/02: Withdrawal of Italy from the Eurozone: Stochastic Simulations of a Structural Macroeconometric Model &#8211; a\/simmetrie<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/asimmetrie.org\/en\/pubblicazioni\/wp-201702-withdrawal-of-italy-from-the-eurozone-stochastic-simulations-of-a-structural-macroeconometric-model\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"WP 2017\/02: Withdrawal of Italy from the Eurozone: Stochastic Simulations of a Structural Macroeconometric Model &#8211; a\/simmetrie\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This paper assesses the impact on the Italian economy of withdrawal of Italy from the Eurozone, by means of the stochastic simulation of a macroeconometric [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/asimmetrie.org\/en\/pubblicazioni\/wp-201702-withdrawal-of-italy-from-the-eurozone-stochastic-simulations-of-a-structural-macroeconometric-model\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"a\/simmetrie\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/asimmetrie.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-07-22T15:14:41+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/asimmetrie.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/2017_02_wp.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"900\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@AsimmetrieOrg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/asimmetrie.org\\\/en\\\/pubblicazioni\\\/wp-201702-withdrawal-of-italy-from-the-eurozone-stochastic-simulations-of-a-structural-macroeconometric-model\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/asimmetrie.org\\\/en\\\/pubblicazioni\\\/wp-201702-withdrawal-of-italy-from-the-eurozone-stochastic-simulations-of-a-structural-macroeconometric-model\\\/\",\"name\":\"WP 2017\\\/02: Withdrawal of Italy from the Eurozone: Stochastic Simulations of a Structural Macroeconometric Model &#8211; 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