This paper assesses the impact on the Italian economy of withdrawal of Italy from the Eurozone, by means of the stochastic simulation of a macroeconometric model. The model considers the contractionary effects of devaluation, the evolution of sovereign debt spread and the development of bilateral economic relations between Italy and its major trade partners. The simulation results are consistent with the findings of recent applied research: the Italian economy would follow the V-shaped pattern observed in most currency crises. After an initial period of stress, it would recover and resume growth at a reasonable pace.
WP 2017/02: Withdrawal of Italy from the Eurozone: Stochastic Simulations of a Structural Macroeconometric Model
- Brigitte Granville Centre for Globalization Research, Queen Mary University of London
- Christian A. Mongeau Ospina
- Alberto Bagnai Università Gabriele d’Annunzio
- European economic and monetary union, ECB, balance of payment crisis, Target2, Euro
- JEL Codes
- E11, E12, E42, E58, F32, F33, F34, F36, N24